Golinski, Adam orcid.org/0000-0001-8603-1171 and Spencer, Peter orcid.org/0000-0002-5595-5360 (Accepted: 2021) Modeling the Covid-19 Epidemic using Time Series Econometrics. Health Economics. ISSN 1057-9230 (In Press)
Abstract
The classic 'logistic' model has provided a realistic model of the behaviour of Covid-19 in China and many East Asian countries. Once these countries passed the peak, the daily case count fell back, mirroring its initial climb in a symmetric way, just as the classic model predicts. However, in Italy and Spain and most other Western countries, the rst wave of the epidemic was very dierent. The daily count fell back gradually from the peak but remained stubbornly high. The reason for the divergence from the classical model remain unclear. We take an empirical stance on this issue and develop a model framework based upon the statistical characteristics of the time series. With the possible exception of China, the workhorse logistic model is decisively rejected against more exible alternatives.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of York |
Academic Units: | The University of York > Faculty of Social Sciences (York) > Economics and Related Studies (York) |
Depositing User: | Pure (York) |
Date Deposited: | 17 Aug 2021 10:20 |
Last Modified: | 08 Feb 2025 00:43 |
Status: | In Press |
Refereed: | Yes |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:177166 |