Bonjean Stanton, MC orcid.org/0000-0002-4558-8341 and Roelich, K orcid.org/0000-0001-6979-5401 (2021) Decision making under deep uncertainties: A review of the applicability of methods in practice. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 171. 120939. ISSN 0040-1625
Abstract
Deep uncertainties like environmental and socio-economic changes create challenges to decision making. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) methods are recognised approaches to navigate deep uncertainties and support robust and adaptable decisions. However, their ability to fully reflect the context in which these decisions are made has been criticised. This paper presents a synthesis across cases and methods to provide a holistic understanding of the application of DMDU methods to support long-term decision making. We carried out a structured literature review and analysed 37 infrastructure DMDU case studies. The analysis shows that DMDU methods are effective at developing plans to address a range of deep uncertainties and in some cases, reflecting the institutional context of the decision. However, they largely overlook the organisational and individual contexts in which decision making happens. We argue that the use of existing DMDU methods in practice should start with a better understanding of the institutional, organisational and individual contexts. We then suggest modifications to the applications of DMDU methods, i.e. internalising the context at different stages of the decision-making process and developing a decision typology to signpost decision makers to the best approach for a specific context.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) |
Keywords: | Decision making under deep uncertainties (DMDU); Robust decisions; Deep uncertainties; Institutional; Organisational and individual contexts; Infrastructure |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Sustainability Research Institute (SRI) (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number EPSRC (Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council) EP/R007403/1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 25 Jun 2021 14:42 |
Last Modified: | 01 Jul 2021 10:57 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120939 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:175376 |