Volz, E, Mishra, S, Chand, M et al. (97 more authors) (2021) Assessing transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England. Nature, 593 (7858). pp. 266-269. ISSN 0028-0836
Abstract
The SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7, designated variant of concern (VOC) 202012/01 by Public Health England1, was first identified in the UK in late summer to early autumn 20202. Whole-genome SARS-CoV-2 sequence data collected from community-based diagnostic testing for COVID-19 show an extremely rapid expansion of the B.1.1.7 lineage during autumn 2020, suggesting that it has a selective advantage. Here we show that changes in VOC frequency inferred from genetic data correspond closely to changes inferred by S gene target failures (SGTF) in community-based diagnostic PCR testing. Analysis of trends in SGTF and non-SGTF case numbers in local areas across England shows that B.1.1.7 has higher transmissibility than non-VOC lineages, even if it has a different latent period or generation time. The SGTF data indicate a transient shift in the age composition of reported cases, with cases of B.1.1.7 including a larger share of under 20-year-olds than non-VOC cases. We estimated time-varying reproduction numbers for B.1.1.7 and co-circulating lineages using SGTF and genomic data. The best-supported models did not indicate a substantial difference in VOC transmissibility among different age groups, but all analyses agreed that B.1.1.7 has a substantial transmission advantage over other lineages, with a 50% to 100% higher reproduction number.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2021. This is an author-produced version of a paper subsequently published in Nature. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | Adolescent; Adult; Age Distribution; Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Basic Reproduction Number; COVID-19; Child; Child, Preschool; England; Evolution, Molecular; Genome, Viral; Humans; Infant; Infant, Newborn; Middle Aged; Phylogeny; SARS-CoV-2; Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus; Time Factors; Young Adult |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Sheffield Teaching Hospitals |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 16 Jun 2021 13:33 |
Last Modified: | 27 Sep 2021 11:36 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Nature Research |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1038/s41586-021-03470-x |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:175263 |