COVIDSurg Collaborative and GlobalSurg Collaborative (2021) SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study. British Journal of Surgery, 108 (9). znab101. pp. 1056-1063. ISSN 0007-1323
Abstract
Background
Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling.
Methods
The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18–49, 50–69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty.
Results
NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year.
Conclusion
As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of BJS Society Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
Keywords: | community; mortality; sars-cov-2; surgical procedures, elective; surgical procedures, operative; vaccination; vaccines |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Medicine and Health (Leeds) > School of Dentistry (Leeds) > School of Dentistry Visitors (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number The Department of Health (NCCEME) C/o NETS-CC DRF-2018-11-ST2-028 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 18 Jun 2021 13:06 |
Last Modified: | 07 Aug 2022 07:58 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Oxford University Press |
Identification Number: | 10.1093/bjs/znab101 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:175259 |