Bojke, Laura orcid.org/0000-0001-7921-9109, Soares, Marta O orcid.org/0000-0003-1579-8513, Claxton, Karl orcid.org/0000-0003-2002-4694 et al. (7 more authors) (2022) Reference Case Methods for Expert Elicitation in Health Care Decision Making. Medical Decision Making. pp. 182-193. ISSN 1552-681X
Abstract
Background The evidence used to inform healthcare decision-making (HCDM) is typically uncertain. In these situations, the experience of experts is essential to help decision makers reach a decision. Structured expert elicitation (referred to as elicitation) is a quantitative process to capture experts’ beliefs. There is heterogeneity in the existing elicitation methodology used in HCDM and it is not clear if existing guidelines are appropriate for use in this context. In this paper we seek to establish reference case methods for elicitation to inform HCDM. Methods We collated the methods available for elicitation using reviews and critique. In addition, we conducted controlled experiments to test the accuracy of alternative methods. We determined the suitability of the methods choices for use in HCDM according to a pre-defined set of principles for elicitation in HCDM, which we have also generated. We determined reference case methods for elicitation in HCDM for Health Technology Assessment (HTA). Results In almost all methods choices available for elicitation, we found a lack of empirical evidence supporting recommendations. Despite this it is possible to define reference case methods for HTA. The reference methods include: a focus on gathering experts with substantive knowledge of the quantities being elicited as opposed to those trained in probability and statistics, eliciting quantities that the expert might observe directly, and individual elicitation of beliefs, rather than solely consensus methods. It is likely that there are additional considerations for decision makers in healthcare outside of HTA. Conclusions The reference case developed here allows the use of different methods, depending on the decision-making setting. Further applied examples of elicitation methods would be useful. Experimental evidence comparing methods should be generated
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Author(s) 2021 |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of York |
Academic Units: | The University of York > Faculty of Social Sciences (York) > Centre for Health Economics (York) The University of York > Faculty of Social Sciences (York) > Economics and Related Studies (York) |
Depositing User: | Pure (York) |
Date Deposited: | 10 Jun 2021 15:10 |
Last Modified: | 16 Oct 2024 17:37 |
Published Version: | https://doi.org/10.1177/0272989X211028236 |
Status: | Published |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1177/0272989X211028236 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:175084 |
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Description: Reference Case Methods for Expert Elicitation in Health Care Decision Making
Licence: CC-BY 2.5