Nielsen, ES, Henriques, R, Beger, M orcid.org/0000-0003-1363-3571 et al. (1 more author) (2021) Distinct interspecific and intraspecific vulnerability of coastal species to global change. Global Change Biology. ISSN 1354-1013
Abstract
Characterising and predicting species responses to anthropogenic global change is one of the key challenges in contemporary ecology and conservation. The sensitivity of marine species to climate change is increasingly being described with forecasted species distributions, yet these rarely account for population level processes such as genomic variation and local adaptation. This study compares inter- and intra-specific patterns of biological composition to determine how vulnerability to climate change, and its environmental drivers, vary across species and populations. We compare species trajectories for three ecologically important southern African marine invertebrates at two time points in the future, both at the species level, with correlative species distribution models, and at the population level, with gradient forest models. Reported range shifts are species-specific and include both predicted range gains and losses. Forecasted species responses to climate change are strongly influenced by changes in a suite of environmental variables, from sea surface salinity and sea surface temperature, to minimum air temperature. Our results further suggest a mismatch between future habitat suitability (where species can remain in their ecological niche) and genomic vulnerability (where populations retain their genomic composition), highlighting the inter- and intraspecific variability in species' sensitivity to global change. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of considering species and population level climatic vulnerability when proactively managing coastal marine ecosystems in the Anthropocene.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Nielsen, ES, Henriques, R, Beger, M et al. (1 more author) (2021) Distinct interspecific and intraspecific vulnerability of coastal species to global change. Global Change Biology. ISSN 1354-1013 , which has been published in final form at http://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15651. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions. |
Keywords: | adaptive potential; climate change; ecological modelling; genomic offset; gradient forest; marine invertebrates; seascape genomics; species distribution models |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Biological Sciences (Leeds) > School of Biology (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 17 May 2021 15:36 |
Last Modified: | 26 Apr 2022 00:38 |
Status: | Published online |
Publisher: | Wiley |
Identification Number: | 10.1111/gcb.15651 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:174156 |