Baker, JCA orcid.org/0000-0002-3720-4758, Garcia-Carreras, L, Buermann, W et al. (6 more authors) (2021) Robust Amazon precipitation projections in climate models that capture realistic land–atmosphere interactions. Environmental Research Letters, 16 (7). 074002. ISSN 1748-9326
Abstract
Land–atmosphere interactions have an important influence on Amazon precipitation (P), but evaluation of these processes in climate models has so far been limited. We analysed relationships between Amazon P and evapotranspiration (ET) in the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models to evaluate controls on surface moisture fluxes and assess the credibility of regional P projections. We found that only 13 out of 38 models captured an energy limitation on Amazon ET, in agreement with observations, while 20 models instead showed Amazon ET is limited by water availability. Models that misrepresented controls on ET over the historical period projected both large increases and decreases in Amazon P by 2100, likely amplified by unrealistic land–atmosphere interactions. In contrast, large future changes in annual and seasonal-scale Amazon P were suppressed in models that simulated realistic controls on ET, due to modulating land–atmosphere interactions. By discounting projections from models that simulated unrealistic ET controls, our analysis halved uncertainty in basin-wide future P change. The ensemble mean of plausible models showed a robust drying signal over the eastern Amazon and in the dry season, and P increases in the west. Finally, we showed that factors controlling Amazon ET evolve over time in realistic models, reducing climate stability and leaving the region vulnerable to further change.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
---|---|
Authors/Creators: |
|
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2021 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI. |
Keywords: | CMIP5, evapotranspiration, land–atmosphere coupling, hydrological feedbacks, process-based evaluation |
Dates: |
|
Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Geography (Leeds) > Ecology & Global Change (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number Met Office Not Known NERC (Natural Environment Research Council) NE/K01353X/1 EU - European Union 771492 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 11 May 2021 13:32 |
Last Modified: | 25 Jun 2023 22:38 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | IOP Publishing |
Identification Number: | 10.1088/1748-9326/abfb2e |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:173439 |
Download
Filename: Baker_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_074002.pdf
Licence: CC-BY 4.0