Roy, C, Nowacki, A orcid.org/0000-0001-7669-7383, Zhang, X et al. (2 more authors) (2021) Accounting for Natural Uncertainty Within Monitoring Systems for Induced Seismicity Based on Earthquake Magnitudes. Frontiers in Earth Science, 9. 634688. ISSN 2296-6463
Abstract
To reduce the probability of future large earthquakes, traffic light systems (TLSs) define appropriate reactions to observed induced seismicity depending on each event's range of local earthquake magnitude (ML). The impact of velocity uncertainties and station site effects may be greater than a whole magnitude unit of ML, which can make the difference between a decision to continue (“green” TLS zone) and an immediate stop of operations (“red” zone). We show how to include these uncertainties in thresholds such that events only exceed a threshold with a fixed probability. This probability can be set by regulators to reflect their tolerance to risk. We demonstrate that with the new TLS, a red-light threshold would have been encountered earlier in the hydraulic fracturing operation at Preston New Road, UK, halting operations and potentially avoiding the later large magnitude events. It is therefore critical to establish systems which permit regulators to account for uncertainties when managing risk.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2021 Roy, Nowacki, Zhang, Curtis and Baptie. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. |
Keywords: | induced seismicily, local magnitude, uncertainties, traffic light system, hydraulic fracture, mining, Monte - Carlo method |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst of Geophysics and Tectonics (IGT) (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number NERC (Natural Environment Research Council) NE/R001154/1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 21 Apr 2021 16:10 |
Last Modified: | 19 Aug 2021 14:59 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Frontiers Media |
Identification Number: | 10.3389/feart.2021.634688 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:173186 |