Sriwastava, A.K., Torres-Matallana, J.A., Schellart, A. et al. (2 more authors) (2021) Implications of model uncertainty for investment decisions to manage intermittent sewer overflows. Water Research, 194. 116885. ISSN 0043-1354
Abstract
Uncertainty in urban drainage modelling studies presents challenges to decision makers with limited investment resources attempting to achieve regulatory compliance for intermittent discharges from Combined Sewer Overflows. This paper presents the development of a new decision-making approach to address two key challenges encountered when attempting to manage sewer overflows, these are (i) the implications of different risk preferences of individuals for investment decisions; and (ii) how to utilize information on uncertainties in system performance predictions due to input or parameter uncertainty while comparing decision alternatives. The developed decision-making approach uses a multi-objective decision formulation to analyse the trade-off between investment and predicted system performance under uncertainty while accounting for risk preferences of the individual decision maker. The proposed uncertainty based decision-making approach is able to incorporate any threshold-based regulatory criteria for intermittent sewer overflows and is illustrated using a case study catchment in Luxembourg. The results from this case study highlight the significant impact of individuals’ risk preferences on the level of investment recommended to comply with threshold-based regulatory criteria. It was demonstrated that differing levels of risk-averseness can result in a substantial increase in investment cost for solutions that are regulatory compliant. This paper demonstrates the need for water companies to rigorously define a corporate risk preference strategy to ensure consistent investment decisions across their operations; otherwise, individual preferences may cause significant over-investment to meet the same regulatory goals.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. This is an author produced version of a paper subsequently published in Water Research. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. Article available under the terms of the CC-BY-NC-ND licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). |
Keywords: | Buffered probability of exceedance; Decision making under modelling uncertainty; Intermittent sewer overflows; Investment cost; Risk preference |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Engineering (Sheffield) > Department of Civil and Structural Engineering (Sheffield) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number EUROPEAN COMMISSION - FP6/FP7 QUICS 607000 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 17 Feb 2021 16:54 |
Last Modified: | 03 Feb 2022 01:38 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Elsevier BV |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.watres.2021.116885 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:171313 |