Brennan, A. orcid.org/0000-0002-1025-312X, Buckley, C. orcid.org/0000-0002-8430-0347, Vu, T.M. orcid.org/0000-0002-2540-8825 et al. (11 more authors) (2020) Introducing CASCADEPOP: an open-source sociodemographic simulation platform for US health policy appraisal. International Journal of Microsimulation, 13 (2). pp. 21-60. ISSN 1747-5864
Abstract
Largescale individual-level and agent-based models are gaining importance in health policy appraisal and evaluation. Such models require the accurate depiction of the jurisdiction’s population over extended time periods to enable modeling of the development of non-communicable diseases under consideration of historical, sociodemographic developments. We developed CASCADEPOP to provide a readily available sociodemographic micro-synthesis and microsimulation platform for US populations. The micro-synthesis method used iterative proportional fitting to integrate data from the US Census, the American Community Survey, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, Multiple Cause of Death Files, and several national surveys to produce a synthetic population aged 12 to 80 years on 01/01/1980 for five states (California, Minnesota, New York, Tennessee, and Texas) and the US. Characteristics include individuals’ age, sex, race/ethnicity, marital/employment/parental status, education, income and patterns of alcohol use as an exemplar health behavior. The microsimulation simulates individuals’ sociodemographic life trajectories over 35 years to 31/12/2015 accounting for population developments including births, deaths, and migration. Results comparing the 1980 micro-synthesis against observed data shows a successful depiction of state and US population characteristics and of drinking. Comparing the microsimulation over 30 years with Census data also showed the successful simulation of sociodemographic developments. The CASCADEPOP platform enables modelling of health behaviors across individuals’ life courses and at a population level. As it contains a large number of relevant sociodemographic characteristics it can be further developed by researchers to build US agent-based models and microsimulations to examine health behaviors, interventions, and policies.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2020, Brennan et al. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited. (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) |
Keywords: | microsimulation models; demography; agent-based modeling; alcohol use; public health; social simulation |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Engineering (Sheffield) > Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering (Sheffield) The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health (Sheffield) > School of Clinical Dentistry (Sheffield) The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health (Sheffield) > School of Health and Related Research (Sheffield) > ScHARR - Sheffield Centre for Health and Related Research |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH - UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 1R01AA024443-01A1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 04 Mar 2021 12:06 |
Last Modified: | 04 Mar 2021 12:06 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | International Microsimulation Association |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.34196/ijm.00217 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:171014 |