Moretti, A. and Whitworth, A. orcid.org/0000-0001-6119-9373 (2023) Estimating the uncertainty of a small area estimator based on a microsimulation approach. Sociological Methods & Research, 52 (4). pp. 1785-1815. ISSN 0049-1241
Abstract
Spatial microsimulation encompasses a range of alternative methodological approaches for the small area estimation (SAE) of target population parameters from sample survey data down to target small areas in contexts where such data are desired but not otherwise available. Although widely used, an enduring limitation of spatial microsimulation SAE approaches is their current inability to deliver reliable measures of uncertainty—and hence confidence intervals—around the small area estimates produced. In this article, we overcome this key limitation via the development of a measure of uncertainty that takes into account both variance and bias, that is, the mean squared error. This new approach is evaluated via a simulation study and demonstrated in a practical application using European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions data to explore income levels across Italian municipalities. Evaluations show that the approach proposed delivers accurate estimates of uncertainty and is robust to nonnormal distributions. The approach provides a significant development to widely used spatial microsimulation SAE techniques.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2021 The Author(s). This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits any use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as specified on the SAGE and Open Access pages (https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/open-access-at-sage). |
Keywords: | calibration; weighting; synthetic; indirect estimator; raking; resampling |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Social Sciences (Sheffield) > Department of Geography (Sheffield) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number Economic and Social Research Council ES/N011619/1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 05 Mar 2021 07:59 |
Last Modified: | 23 Oct 2023 13:37 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | SAGE Publications |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1177/0049124120986199 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:170801 |