Maurya, S., Srivastava, P.K., Yaduvanshi, A. et al. (4 more authors) (2021) Soil erosion in future scenario using CMIP5 models and earth observation datasets. Journal of Hydrology, 594. 125851. ISSN 0022-1694
Abstract
Rainfall and land use/land cover changes are significant factors that impact the soil erosion processes. Therefore, the present study aims to investigate the impact of rainfall and land use/land cover changes in the current and future scenarios to deduce the soil erosion losses using the state-of-the-art Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). In this study, we evaluated the long-term changes (period 1981-2040) in the land use/land cover and rainfall through the statistical measures and used subsequently in the soil erosion loss prediction. The future land use/land cover changes are produced using the Cellular Automata Markov Chain model (CA-Markov) simulation using multi-temporal Landsat datasets, while long term rainfall data was obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project v5 (CMIP5) and Indian Meteorological Department. In total seven CMIP5 model projections viz Ensemble mean, MRI-CGCM3, INMCM4, canESM2, MPI-ESM-LR, GFDL-ESM2M and GFDL-CM3 of rainfall were used. The future projections (2011-2040) of soil erosion losses were then made after calibrating the soil erosion model on the historic datasets. The applicability of the proposed method has been tested over the Mahi River Basin (MRB), a region of key environmental significance in India. The finding represents that rainfall-runoff erosivity gradually decreases from 475.18 MJ mm/h/y (1981-1990) to 425.72 MJ mm/h/y (1991-2000). A value of 428.53 MJ mm/h/y was obtained in 2001-2010, while a significantly high values 661.47 MJ mm/h/y is reported for the 2011-2040 in the ensemble model mean output of CMIP5. The combined results of rainfall and land use/land cover changes reveal that the soil erosion loss occurred during 1981-1990 was 55.23 t/ha/y (1981-1990), which is gradually increased to 56.78 t/ha/y in 1991-2000 and 57.35 t/ha/y in 2000-2010. The projected results showed that it would increase to 71.46 t/h/y in 2011-2040. The outcome of this study can be used to provide reasonable assistance in identifying suitable conservation practices in the MRB.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
---|---|
Authors/Creators: |
|
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2020 Elsevier B.V. This is an author produced version of a paper subsequently published in Journal of Hydrology. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. Article available under the terms of the CC-BY-NC-ND licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). |
Keywords: | Soil erosion; CMIP5 model; CA-Markov; Mahi River Basin; GIS; remote sensing |
Dates: |
|
Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Engineering (Sheffield) > Department of Civil and Structural Engineering (Sheffield) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 05 Jan 2021 11:43 |
Last Modified: | 01 Feb 2022 11:21 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125851 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:169433 |