McKenna, CM orcid.org/0000-0002-9677-4582, Maycock, AC orcid.org/0000-0002-6614-1127, Forster, PM orcid.org/0000-0002-6078-0171 et al. (2 more authors) (2021) Stringent mitigation substantially reduces risk of unprecedented near-term warming rates. Nature Climate Change, 11 (2). pp. 126-131. ISSN 1758-678X
Abstract
Following the Paris Agreement, many countries are enacting targets to achieve net-zero GHG emissions. Stringent mitigation will have clear societal benefits in the second half of this century by limiting peak warming and stabilizing climate. However, the near-term benefits of mitigation are generally thought to be less clear because forced surface temperature trends can be masked by internal variability. Here we use observationally constrained projections from the latest comprehensive climate models and a simple climate model emulator to show that pursuing stringent mitigation consistent with holding long-term warming below 1.5 °C reduces the risk of unprecedented warming rates in the next 20 years by a factor of 13 compared with a no mitigation scenario, even after accounting for internal variability. Therefore, in addition to long-term benefits, stringent mitigation offers substantial near-term benefits by offering societies and ecosystems a greater chance to adapt to and avoid the worst climate change impacts.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | Copyright © 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2021. This is an author produced version of a paper published in Nature Climate Change. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number NERC (Natural Environment Research Council) NE/M018199/1 EU - European Union 820829 Leverhulme Trust PLP-2018-278 NERC (Natural Environment Research Council) NE/T009381/1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 29 Oct 2020 14:10 |
Last Modified: | 07 Jun 2021 00:38 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Nature Research |
Identification Number: | 10.1038/s41558-020-00957-9 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:167306 |