Hinkkainen Elliott, Kaisa Helena, Polo, Sara and Reyes, Liana (2020) Making Peace or Preventing It? UN Peacekeeping, Terrorism, and Civil War Negotiations. International Studies Quarterly. sqaa078. ISSN 1468-2478
Abstract
Previous studies have highlighted that United Nations peacekeeping operations are effective at reducing violence during civil wars. But can these operations also change the incentives of the warring parties and lead them to pursue non-violent alternatives? This article provides the first direct test of UN peacekeeping troops’ effectiveness at inducing non-violent engagements, specifically negotiations during civil wars. Our analysis of disaggregated monthly data on peace operations, negotiations, and violence in African conflicts (1989-2009) reveals that sizable deployments of UN military troops, by themselves, are insufficient to foster negotiations, even when they reduce battlefield violence. Instead, the probability of negotiation instances is conditional on rebel tactics. We posit, when rebels engage in terrorism, peacekeeping troops can inadvertently alter the “power to hurt” of the belligerents in favor of rebel groups and create conditions conducive to negotiations. Our results have important implications for research on the effectiveness of both peacekeeping and terrorism and for policy-making.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Author(s) (2020). This is an author-produced version of the published paper. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher’s self-archiving policy. Further copying may not be permitted; contact the publisher for details. |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of York |
Academic Units: | The University of York > Faculty of Social Sciences (York) > Politics (York) |
Depositing User: | Pure (York) |
Date Deposited: | 09 Oct 2020 11:00 |
Last Modified: | 21 Oct 2024 23:59 |
Published Version: | https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqaa078 |
Status: | Published online |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1093/isq/sqaa078 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:166498 |
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