Nkiaka, E. orcid.org/0000-0001-7362-9430, Taylor, A., Dougill, A.J. et al. (9 more authors) (2020) Exploring the need for developing impact-based forecasting in West Africa. Frontiers in Climate, 2. 565500. ISSN 2624-9553
Abstract
While conventional weather forecasts focus on meteorological thresholds for extreme events, Impact-Based Forecasts (IBF) integrate information about the potential severity of weather impacts with their likelihood of occurrence. As IBF provides an indication of local risk, there is an increasing uptake of this approach globally. Despite the vulnerability of West Africa to severe weather, and the potential benefits of such a risk-based approach for informing disaster risk reduction, IBF remains rarely used in this region. To meet this need, three national workshops were held in Ghana, Nigeria and Senegal with forecasters, project researchers and users of Climate Information Services (CIS) from key sectors (e.g. agriculture, water resources, disaster risk reduction). In addition, a more localised district level workshop was held in Northern Ghana to explore needs at a subnational scale in Tamale District. The objectives of these workshops were to evaluate the current use of forecast products provided by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and to explore the potential for applying IBF. Findings indicate a recognition that the quality of forecast products provided by NMHSs in West Africa has substantially improved in recent years. However, challenges remain related to user understanding, clarity about forecast uncertainty, insufficient spatial and temporal resolution of forecasts leading to limited trust in forecasts. The workshops identified high demand for weather information related to storms, droughts and heatwaves in all the three countries. Dust storms were identified as having strong potential for IBF application in both Nigeria and Senegal. To increase the uptake of CIS by users in West Africa, NMHSs will need to develop and implement user-tailored IBF in their normal weather forecast approaches and improve communication channels with user communities. There is an urgent need for governments in West Africa to enhance the capacity of NMHSs to incorporate IBF as a routine forecast activity by first establishing a National Framework for Climate Services with user engagement as a key first pillar.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2020 Nkiaka, Taylor, Dougill, Antwi-Agyei, Adefisan, Ahiataku, Baffour-Ata, Fournier, Indasi, Konte, Lawal and Toure. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. |
Keywords: | Disaster Risk Reduction; Forecast evalution; stakeholder engagement; Climate services; Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Social Sciences (Sheffield) > Department of Geography (Sheffield) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 28 Sep 2020 13:37 |
Last Modified: | 20 Oct 2020 08:28 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Frontiers Media |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.3389/fclim.2020.565500 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:165669 |