Maffei Faccioli, N. and Vella, E. (2020) The asymmetric unemployment response of natives and foreigners to migration shocks. Working Paper. Sheffield Economic Research Paper Series, 2020008 (2020008). Department of Economics, University of Sheffield ISSN 1749-8368
Abstract
This paper provides new evidence on the macroeconomic effects of net migration shocks in Germany. Using monthly data from 2006 to 2019 and a variety of identification strategies in a structural vector autoregressive model, we show that migration shocks are expansionary. Net migration increases persistently industrial production, per capita net exports and tax revenue. In the labor market, migration boosts persistently job openings and, after a year and a half, hourly wages in manufacturing. Total unemployment declines but the response is asymmetric between natives and foreigners. Unemployment falls persistently for natives while it rises a year after the shock for foreigners as the newly settled migrants enter the labor market gradually. Using also quarterly data in a mixed-frequency SVAR, we shed light on the employment and participation responses for natives and foreigners. We also show that migration shocks increase per capita GDP, investment, and hourly wages of the aggregate economy. Taken together, our results highlight a job-creation effect for natives and a job-competition effect for foreigners.
Metadata
Item Type: | Monograph |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2020 The Author(s). For reuse permissions, please contact the Author(s). |
Keywords: | Migration; Unemployment; Job creation; job competition; mixed-frequency SVAR |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Social Sciences (Sheffield) > Department of Economics (Sheffield) > Sheffield Economics Research Papers Series The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Social Sciences (Sheffield) > Department of Economics (Sheffield) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 20 Aug 2020 07:50 |
Last Modified: | 10 Sep 2020 07:29 |
Published Version: | https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/economics/research/ser... |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Department of Economics, University of Sheffield |
Series Name: | Sheffield Economic Research Paper Series |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:164674 |