Wu, W, Li, P, Liu, R orcid.org/0000-0003-0627-3184 et al. (4 more authors) (2020) Predicting peak load of bus routes with supply optimization and scaled Shepard interpolation: A newsvendor model. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 142. 102041. ISSN 1366-5545
Abstract
The peak load of a bus route is essential to service frequency determination. From the supply side, there exist ineffective predicted errors of peak load for the optimal number of trips. Whilst many studies were undertaken to model demand prediction and supply optimization separately, little evidence is provided about how the predicted results of peak load affect supply optimization. We propose a prediction model for the peak load of bus routes built upon the idea of newsvendor model, which explicitly combines demand prediction with supply optimization. A new cost-based indicator is devised built upon the practical implication of peak load on bus schedule. We further devise a scaled Shepard interpolation algorithm to resolve discontinuities in the probability distribution of prediction errors arising from the new indicator, while leveraging the potential efficacy of multi-source data by adding a novel quasi-attention mechanism (i.e., scaling feature space and parameter optimization). The real-world application showed that our method can achieve high stability and accuracy, and is more robust to predicted errors with higher capacity. Our method can also produce a larger number of better trip supply plans as compared to traditional methods, while presenting stronger explanatory power in prioritizing the relative contribution of influential factors to peak load prediction.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2020, Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This is an author produced version of an article published in Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | Public transport; Peak load forecast; Supply optimization; Interpolation; Influential factors |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > Institute for Transport Studies (Leeds) > ITS: Spatial Modelling and Dynamics (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number Royal Academy of Engineering No External Reference Department of Transport P4002008 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 23 Jul 2020 12:49 |
Last Modified: | 08 Aug 2021 00:38 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.tre.2020.102041 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:163506 |
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