Hodnebrog, Ø, Marelle, L, Alterskjær, K et al. (7 more authors) (2019) Intensification of summer precipitation with shorter time-scales in Europe. Environmental Research Letters, 14 (12). 124050. ISSN 1748-9326
Abstract
While daily extreme precipitation intensities increase with global warming on average at approximately the same rate as the availability of water vapor (~7%/°C), a debated topic is whether sub-daily extremes increase more. Modelling at convection-permitting scales has been deemed necessary to reproduce extreme summer precipitation at local scale. Here we analyze multi-model ensembles and apply a 3 km horizontal resolution model over four regions across Europe (S. Norway, Denmark, Benelux and Albania) and find very good agreement with observed daily and hourly summer precipitation extremes. Projections show that daily extreme precipitation intensifies compared to the mean in all regions and across a wide range of models and resolutions. Hourly and 10 min extremes intensify at a higher rate in nearly all regions. Unlike most recent studies, we do not find sub-daily precipitation extremes increasing much more than 7%/°C, even for sub-hourly extremes, but this may be due to robust summer drying over large parts of Europe. However, the absolute strongest local daily precipitation event in a 20 year period will increase by 10%–20%/°C. At the same time, model projections strongly indicate that summer drying will be more pronounced for extremely dry years.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported (CC BY 3.0) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/) |
Keywords: | extreme precipitation; convection-permitting modelling; summer precipitation; Europe; regional climate modelling; global climate modelling; intensification of extremes |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number EU - European Union 820829 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF/RFQ/2019/CAMS_74 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 30 Jun 2020 14:25 |
Last Modified: | 02 Oct 2020 15:23 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | IOP Publishing |
Identification Number: | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab549c |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:162577 |
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