Finney, DL, Marsham, JH orcid.org/0000-0003-3219-8472, Rowell, DP et al. (4 more authors) (2020) Effects of Explicit Convection on Future Projections of Mesoscale Circulations, Rainfall, and Rainfall Extremes over Eastern Africa. Journal of Climate, 33 (7). pp. 2701-2718. ISSN 0894-8755
Abstract
Eastern Africa’s fast-growing population is vulnerable to changing rainfall and extremes. Using the first pan-African climate change simulations that explicitly model the rainfall-generating convection, we investigate both the climate change response of key mesoscale drivers of eastern African rainfall, such as sea and lake breezes, and the spatial heterogeneity of rainfall responses. The explicit model shows widespread increases at the end of the century in mean (~40%) and extreme (~50%) rain rates, whereas the sign of changes in rainfall frequency has large spatial heterogeneity (from −50% to over +90%). In comparison, an equivalent parameterized simulation has greater moisture convergence and total rainfall increase over the eastern Congo and less over eastern Africa. The parameterized model also does not capture 1) the large heterogeneity of changes in rain frequency; 2) the widespread and large increases in extreme rainfall, which result from increased rainfall per humidity change; and 3) the response of rainfall to the changing sea breeze, even though the sea-breeze change is captured. Consequently, previous rainfall projections are likely inadequate for informing many climate-sensitive decisions—for example, for infrastructure in coastal cities. We consider the physics revealed here and its implications to be relevant for many other vulnerable tropical regions, especially those with coastal convection.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2020 American Meteorological Society. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
Keywords: | Convective-scale processes, Lake effects, Mesoscale processes, Sea breezes, Precipitation, Climate change |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number NERC (Natural Environment Research Council) NE/M017176/1 NERC (Natural Environment Research Council) NE/M02038X/1 NERC (Natural Environment Research Council) NE/P021077/1 Met Office No External Reference |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 03 Jul 2020 15:43 |
Last Modified: | 03 Jul 2020 15:43 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | American Meteorological Society |
Identification Number: | 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0328.1 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:162292 |