Bueno de Mesquita, PJ, Noakes, CJ orcid.org/0000-0003-3084-7467 and Milton, DK (2020) Quantitative aerobiologic analysis of an influenza human challenge‐transmission trial. Indoor Air, 30 (6). pp. 1189-1198. ISSN 0905-6947
Abstract
Despite evidence that airborne transmission contributes to influenza epidemics, limited knowledge of the infectiousness of human influenza cases hinders pandemic preparedness. We used airborne viral source strength and indoor CO2 monitoring from the largest human influenza challenge‐transmission trial (EMIT: Evaluating Modes of Influenza Transmission, ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT01710111) to compute an airborne infectious dose generation rate q = 0.11 (95% CI 0.088, 0.12)/h and calculate the quantity of airborne virus per infectious dose σ = 1.4E + 5 RNA copies/quantum (95% CI 9.9E + 4, 1.8E + 5). We then compared these calculated values to available data on influenza airborne infectious dose from several previous studies, and applied the values to dormitory room environments to predict probability of transmission between roommates. Transmission risk from typical, moderately to severely symptomatic influenza cases is dramatically decreased by exposure reduction via increasing indoor air ventilation. The minority of cases who shed the most virus (ie, supershedders) may pose great risk even in well‐ventilated spaces. Our modeling method and estimated infectiousness provide a ground work for (a) epidemiologic studies of transmission in non‐experimental settings and (b) evaluation of the extent to which airborne exposure control strategies could limit transmission risk.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2020 The Authors. Indoor Air published by John Wiley & Sons Lt. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
Keywords: | aerosols; airborne infection; Influenza virus; rebreathed air; risk assessment; transmission |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Engineering & Physical Sciences (Leeds) > School of Civil Engineering (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number Centre for Disease Control & Prevention (PHS) Not Known |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 11 Jun 2020 11:19 |
Last Modified: | 09 Jun 2021 09:46 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Wiley |
Identification Number: | 10.1111/ina.12701 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:161708 |