The Business Case for a Journey Planning and Ticketing App—Comparison between a Simulation Analysis and Real-World Data

Successful development of “Mobility-as-a-Service” (MaaS) schemes could be transformative to our transport systems and critical for achieving sustainable cities. There are high hopes for mobile phone applications that offer both journey planning and ticketing across all the available transport modes, but these are in their infancy, with little understanding of the correct approach to business models and governance. In this study, we develop a system dynamics diffusion model that represents the uptake of such an app, based on one developed and released in West Yorkshire, UK. We perform sensitivity and uncertainty tests on user uptake and app operating profitability, and analyse these in three key areas of marketing, competition, and costs. Comparison to early uptake data is included to demonstrate accuracy of model behaviour and would suggest market failure by month 12 without stronger marketing, even if additional tickets and functions are offered. In response to this, we offer further insights on the need for direct targeted marketing to ensure mass market adoption, the importance of understanding a realistic potential adopter pool, the awareness of competing apps, and the high uncertainty that exists in this market.