Watson-Parris, D, Bellouin, N, Deaconu, LT et al. (8 more authors) (2020) Constraining Uncertainty in Aerosol Direct Forcing. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (9). e2020GL087. ISSN 0094-8276
Abstract
The uncertainty in present‐day anthropogenic forcing is dominated by uncertainty in the strength of the contribution from aerosol. Much of the uncertainty in the direct aerosol forcing can be attributed to uncertainty in the anthropogenic fraction of aerosol in the present‐day atmosphere, due to a lack of historical observations. Here, we present a robust relationship between total present‐day aerosol optical depth and the anthropogenic contribution across three multimodel ensembles and a large single‐model perturbed parameter ensemble. Using observations of aerosol optical depth, we determine a reduced likely range of the anthropogenic component and hence a reduced uncertainty in the direct forcing of aerosol.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | ©2020. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) |
Keywords: | aerosol; forcing |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 13 May 2020 15:59 |
Last Modified: | 13 May 2020 15:59 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
Identification Number: | 10.1029/2020gl087141 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:160614 |