Trading places : worklessness dynamics in Greater Manchester

As part of the Local Economic Assessment process, a number of additional research projects were proposed by Greater Manchester (GM) local authorities into areas where data gaps exist or a greater understanding and analysis of a particular issue is required. One such area was the dynamics of the workless population in deprived neighbourhoods.

There are neighbourhoods across GM where worklessness rates are persistently high. It has been suggested that in some areas this is partly the result of individuals moving out of deprived neighbourhoods to ‘better’ areas having found employment and then being replaced by workless individuals moving into the neighbourhood. Thus, people experience positive individual level employment outcomes whilst living in a neighbourhood, but the area may change little over time and may appear unresponsive to initiatives aimed at reducing worklessness.

The analysis in this report breaks new ground in using individual level data on employment transitions and geographical movements taken from Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) and Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC) records to shed light on neighbourhood level population dynamics.