Stolpe, M, Tokarska, K, Sippel, S et al. (4 more authors) (2020) Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models. Science Advances, 6 (12). eaaz9549. ISSN 2375-2548
Abstract
Future global warming estimates have been similar across past assessments, but several climate models of the latest Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulate much stronger warming, apparently inconsistent with past assessments. Here, we show that projected future warming is correlated with the simulated warming trend during recent decades across CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, enabling us to constrain future warming based on consistency with the observed warming. These findings carry important policy-relevant implications: The observationally constrained CMIP6 median warming in high emissions and ambitious mitigation scenarios is over 16 and 14% lower by 2050 compared to the raw CMIP6 median, respectively, and over 14 and 8% lower by 2090, relative to 1995–2014. Observationally constrained CMIP6 warming is consistent with previous assessments based on CMIP5 models, and in an ambitious mitigation scenario, the likely range is consistent with reaching the Paris Agreement target.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S .Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC). |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number EU - European Union 820829 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 20 Mar 2020 16:15 |
Last Modified: | 03 Sep 2024 15:11 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | American Association for the Advancement of Science |
Identification Number: | 10.1126/sciadv.aaz9549 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:158552 |