Quantifying the transboundary contribution of nitrogen oxides to UK air quality

Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) pollution is an important contributor to poor air quality (AQ) and a significant cause of premature deaths in the UK. Although transboundary (i.e., international) transport of pollution to the UK is believed to have an impact on UK pollutant concentrations, large uncertainties remain in these estimates. Therefore, the extent to which emission reductions in neighbouring countries would benefit UK AQ relative to local emission reductions also remains unknown. We have used a back‐trajectory model in conjunction with synoptic scale classifications of UK circulation patterns (Lamb Weather Types [LWT]), to quantify the accumulation of nitrogen oxide (NO x = NO2 + NO) emissions in air masses en‐route to the UK. This novel method presents a computationally inexpensive and useful method of quantifying the accumulation of pollutants under different circulation patterns. We find the highest accumulated NO x totals occur under south‐easterly and southerly flows (>15 μg⋅m−2), with a substantial contribution from outwith the UK (>25%). In contrast, the total accumulated NO x under northerly and westerly flows is lower (∼10 μg⋅m−2), and dominated by UK emissions (>95%). This indicates that European emissions can contribute substantially to UK local‐scale pollution in urban areas under south‐easterly and southerly flows. The sensitivity of integrated NO x emission totals under different air masses is investigated by modelling future European emission contributions based on emission reduction targets. Under targets set by the European Union, there would be a decrease in accumulated NO x emissions in London under most wind directions except for north‐westerly, westerly and northerly flow. The largest benefits to UK AQ from transboundary contributions occur with emission reductions in the Benelux region, due to its close proximity and high NO x emission rates, emphasising the importance of international cooperation in improving local AQ.