Nicholls, T and Hayton, R orcid.org/0000-0002-9899-0035 (Cover date: Jan - March 2020) Splitting the Tactical Vote? Coordination Problems with Polling Model-Driven Tactical Voting Websites. The Political Quarterly, 91 (1). pp. 61-69. ISSN 0032-3179
Abstract
The 2019 general election gave prominence to tactical voting advice websites, particularly those projecting constituency‐level results using national polling data and sophisticated multi‐level regression and poststratification (MRP) polling models. We see tactical voting as an example of a coordination game and argue that polling‐model driven advice websites are disruptive to the existing focal points for strategic voting. Although such websites may well help identify the strongest candidate based on constituency demographics, the article argues they are unlikely to coalesce support behind that single candidate, a prerequisite for successful tactical voting. In practice, there are multiple competing models and websites as well as other key sources of information to voters. Furthermore, the heuristic of relying on tactical voting websites is vulnerable to strategic action by partisans. In short, it is argued that the emergence of these websites risks muddying the waters further for electors seeking to vote tactically, potentially splitting the tactical vote rather than unifying it.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Authors 2020. The Political Quarterly © The Political Quarterly Publishing Co. Ltd. 2020 Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Nicholls, T and Hayton, R (2020) Splitting the Tactical Vote? Coordination Problems with Polling Model-Driven Tactical Voting Websites. The Political Quarterly, 91 (1). pp. 61-69 , which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-923X.12822. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions. |
Keywords: | tactical voting, coordination games, British politics, multi‐level regression with poststratification, elections |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Education, Social Sciences and Law (Leeds) > School of Politics & International Studies (POLIS) (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 02 Mar 2020 14:19 |
Last Modified: | 04 Mar 2021 01:38 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Wiley-Blackwell |
Identification Number: | 10.1111/1467-923X.12822 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:157869 |