Can we accurately predict cost effectiveness without access to overall survival data? The case study of nivolumab in combination with ipilimumab for the treatment of patients with advanced melanoma in England

Background

Nivolumab with ipilimumab (the Regimen) is the first immuno-oncology combination treatment to demonstrate long-term clinical benefit for advanced melanoma patients. We evaluated the cost effectiveness of the Regimen in this population, with and without the availability of overall survival (OS) data.

Methods

A partitioned survival model and a Markov state-transition model were developed to estimate the lifetime costs and benefits of the Regimen versus ipilimumab. These models were built with and without the availability of OS data, as only progression-free survival data were available from the head-to-head, phase III trial against ipilimumab at the time of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) submission. Patient utilities and resource use data were sourced from trial data or the literature.

Results

Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and absolute costs were similar between the models with and without OS data, but the model with OS data generated more than 1 additional quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) across both treatment arms. In both models, based on list prices, the Regimen was the most cost-effective treatment.

Conclusions

The analyses show that the Regimen is a cost-effective treatment for advanced melanoma patients in England, and methods to overcome the lack of OS can give reasonable estimates of QALYs gained and ICERs.