Sianko, I., Ozdemir Kilinc, Z., Khoshkholghi, S. et al. (4 more authors) (2020) A practical probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis tool: case study Marmara region. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 18 (6). pp. 2523-2555. ISSN 1573-1456
Abstract
Earthquakes have a damaging impact on the economic welfare and resilience of communities, particularly in developing countries. Seismic hazard assessment is the first step towards performing prevention, preparedness, and response or recovery actions to reduce seismic risk. This paper presents a computation tool for predicting the seismic hazard at the macro level as a part of a comprehensive multi-hazard framework on earthquake risk assessment. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) procedure is based on the Monte-Carlo approach, and particular attention is paid to the definition of source zones assigned in the study area. Both Poisson and time dependent (renewal) models are adopted to quantify the effect of temporal dependencies between seismic events, while near-field rupture directivity effects are also taken into account. Marmara region in Turkey is selected as a case study area to perform a new seismic hazard analysis and verify the accuracy of the proposed tool. The results show good agreement with results from the recent SHARE project and the latest Turkish Earthquake Design code hazard maps. This confirms that the proposed PSHA method can be an attractive alternative to the direct integration based methods due to its practicality and powerful handling of uncertainties.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Author(s) 2020. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
Keywords: | Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA); Monte-Carlo simulations; Near-field effects; Time-dependency; Marmara region |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Engineering (Sheffield) > Department of Civil and Structural Engineering (Sheffield) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 28 Jan 2020 12:12 |
Last Modified: | 22 Oct 2021 11:13 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Springer (part of Springer Nature) |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1007/s10518-020-00793-4 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:155995 |
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