Bell, A. orcid.org/0000-0002-8268-5853 (2020) Age period cohort analysis: a review of what we should and shouldn’t do. Annals of Human Biology, 47 (2). pp. 208-217. ISSN 0301-4460
Abstract
Context: Age, period and birth cohort (APC) effects have been known for decades in biological, health and social sciences. However, exact collinearity between these three (Age = Year – Birth Year) leads to difficulty estimating these effects. It is thus impossible to estimate linear components of these effects without strong assumptions about at least one of these. This is problematic for anyone interested in APC patterns. Attempts to ‘solve’ this identification problem without strong assumptions are, in fact, making hidden unintended assumptions.
Objective: Provide an overview of what APC effects are and the nature of the identification problem, before reviewing and critiquing methodological literature across the health and social sciences. I also present an argument for what researchers should do.
Method: non-systematic review of methodological literature across health and social sciences.
Results: Recommendations include considering non-linearities around linear APC effects, and stating strong and explicit theory-based assumptions. Mechanical solutions to the identification problem do not work.
Conclusion: These recommendations acknowledge there is a ‘line of solutions’ of possible combinations of APC effects, and not a single answer that can be estimated empirically. None of these methods solve the identification problem – rather they acknowledgement that methods are limited by assumptions.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: | |
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2019 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This is an author-produced version of a paper subsequently published in Annals of Human Biology. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | age; period; cohort; identification; methodology |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Social Sciences (Sheffield) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 05 Dec 2019 13:38 |
Last Modified: | 20 May 2021 00:38 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Taylor & Francis |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1080/03014460.2019.1707872 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:154233 |
Commentary/Response Threads
- Bell, A. Age period cohort analysis: a review of what we should and shouldn’t do. (deposited 05 Dec 2019 13:38) [Currently Displayed]