Sensitivity of mangrove soil organic matter decay to warming and sea level change.

Mangroves are among the world's most carbon-dense ecosystems, but they are threatened by rapid climate change and rising sea levels. The accumulation and decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM) are closely tied to mangroves' carbon sink functions and resistance to rising sea levels. However, few studies have investigated the response of mangrove SOM dynamics to likely future environmental conditions. We quantified how mangrove SOM decay is affected by predicted global warming (+4°C), sea level changes (simulated by modification of the inundation duration by zero, two and six hours per day), and their interaction. Whilst changes in inundation duration between two and six hours per day did not affect SOM decay, the treatment without inundation led to a 60% increase. A warming of 4°C caused SOM decay to increase by 21%, but longer inundation moderated this temperature-driven increase. Our results suggest that i) sea level rise is unlikely to decrease the SOM decay rate, suggesting that previous mangrove elevation gain, which has allowed mangroves to persist in areas of sea level rise, might result from changes in root production and/or mineral sedimentation; ii) sea level fall events, predicted to double in frequency and area, will cause periods of intensified SOM decay; iii) changing tidal regimes in mangroves due to sea level rise might attenuate increases in SOM decay caused by global warming. Our results have important implications for forecasting mangrove carbon dynamics and the persistence of mangroves and other coastal wetlands under future scenarios of climate change.