Keane, RJ orcid.org/0000-0002-7506-7352, Plant, RS and Tennant, WJ (2016) Evaluation of the Plant–Craig stochastic convection scheme (v2.0) in the ensemble forecasting system MOGREPS-R (24 km) based on the Unified Model (v7.3). Geoscientific Model Development, 9 (5). pp. 1921-1935. ISSN 1991-959X
Abstract
The Plant–Craig stochastic convection parameterization (version 2.0) is implemented in the Met Office Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS-R) and is assessed in comparison with the standard convection scheme with a simple stochastic scheme only, from random parameter variation. A set of 34 ensemble forecasts, each with 24 members, is considered, over the month of July 2009. Deterministic and probabilistic measures of the precipitation forecasts are assessed. The Plant–Craig parameterization is found to improve probabilistic forecast measures, particularly the results for lower precipitation thresholds. The impact on deterministic forecasts at the grid scale is neutral, although the Plant–Craig scheme does deliver improvements when forecasts are made over larger areas. The improvements found are greater in conditions of relatively weak synoptic forcing, for which convective precipitation is likely to be less predictable.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 21 Nov 2019 12:03 |
Last Modified: | 21 Nov 2019 12:03 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | European Geosciences Union |
Identification Number: | 10.5194/gmd-9-1921-2016 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:153726 |