Okan, Y orcid.org/0000-0001-7963-1363, Stone, ER, Parillo, J et al. (2 more authors) (2020) Probability Size Matters: The Effect of Foreground‐Only versus Foreground+Background Graphs on Risk Aversion Diminishes with Larger Probabilities. Risk Analysis, 40 (4). pp. 771-788. ISSN 0272-4332
Abstract
Graphs are increasingly recommended for improving decision‐making and promoting risk‐avoidant behaviors. Graphs that depict only the number of people affected by a risk (“foreground‐only” displays) tend to increase perceived risk and risk aversion (e.g., willingness to get vaccinated), as compared to graphs that also depict the number of people at risk for harm (“foreground+background” displays). However, previous research examining these “foreground‐only effects” has focused on relatively low‐probability risks (<10%), limiting generalizability to communications about larger risks. In two experiments, we systematically investigated the moderating role of probability size on foreground‐only effects, using a wide range of probability sizes (from 0.1% to 40%). Additionally, we examined the moderating role of the size of the risk reduction, that is, the extent to which a protective behavior reduces the risk. Across both experiments, foreground‐only effects on perceived risk and risk aversion were weaker for larger probabilities. Experiment 2 also revealed that foreground‐only effects were weaker for smaller risk reductions, while foreground‐only displays decreased understanding of absolute risk magnitudes independently of probability size. These findings suggest that the greater effectiveness of foreground‐only versus foreground+background displays for increasing perceived risk and risk aversion diminishes with larger probability sizes and smaller risk reductions. Moreover, if the goal is to promote understanding of absolute risk magnitudes, foreground+background displays should be used rather than foreground‐only displays regardless of probability size. Our findings also help to refine and extend existing theoretical accounts of foreground‐only effects to situations involving a wide range of probability sizes.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
---|---|
Authors/Creators: |
|
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2020 Society for Risk Analysis. This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Okan, Y , Stone, ER, Parillo, J et al. (2 more authors) (2020) Probability Size Matters: The Effect of Foreground‐Only versus Foreground+Background Graphs on Risk Aversion Diminishes with Larger Probabilities. Risk Analysis, 40 (4). pp. 771-788. ISSN 0272-4332, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13431. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | Decision making; graph design; risk aversion; risk communication; risk perception |
Dates: |
|
Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Business (Leeds) > Management Division (LUBS) (Leeds) > Management Division Decision Research (LUBS) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number Cancer Research UK C57775/A22182 Riksbankens Jubileumsfond M14-0138:1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 21 Nov 2019 10:58 |
Last Modified: | 06 Jan 2022 01:38 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Wiley |
Identification Number: | 10.1111/risa.13431 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:153697 |