Ku, C.-C. and Dodd, P.J. orcid.org/0000-0001-5825-9347 (2019) Forecasting the impact of population ageing on tuberculosis incidence. PLoS ONE, 14 (9). ISSN 1932-6203
Abstract
Background
Tuberculosis (TB) disease reactivates from distant latent infection or recent (re)infection. Progression risks increase with age. Across the World Health Organisation Western Pacific region, many populations are ageing and have the highest per capita TB incidence rates in older age groups. However, methods for analysing age-specific TB incidence and forecasting epidemic trends while accounting for demographic change remain limited.
Methods
We applied the Lee-Carter models, which were originally developed for mortality modelling, to model the temporal trends in age-specific TB incidence data from 2005 to 2018 in Taiwan. Females and males were modelled separately. We combined our demographic forecasts, and age-specific TB incidence forecasts to project TB incidence until 2035. We compared TB incidence projections with demography fixed in 2018 to projections accounting for demographic change.
Results
Our models quantified increasing incidence rates with age and declining temporal trends. By 2035, the forecast suggests that the TB incidence rate in Taiwan will decrease by 54% (95% Prediction Interval (PI): 45%-59%) compared to 2015, while most age-specific incidence rates will reduce by more than 60%. In 2035, adults aged 65 and above will make up 78% of incident TB cases. Forecast TB incidence in 2035 accounting for demographic change will be 39% (95% PI: 36%-42%) higher than without population ageing.
Conclusions
Age-specific incidence forecasts coupled with demographic forecasts can inform the impact of population ageing on TB epidemics. The TB control programme in Taiwan should develop plans specific to older age groups and their care needs.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
---|---|
Authors/Creators: |
|
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2019 The Authors. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
Dates: |
|
Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health (Sheffield) > School of Health and Related Research (Sheffield) > ScHARR - Sheffield Centre for Health and Related Research |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number Medical Research Council MR/P022081/1 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation N/A |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 07 Oct 2019 15:13 |
Last Modified: | 07 Oct 2019 15:13 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1371/journal.pone.0222937 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:151621 |