Fang, X, Pyle, JA, Chipperfield, MP orcid.org/0000-0002-6803-4149 et al. (3 more authors) (2019) Challenges for the recovery of the ozone layer. Nature Geoscience, 12 (8). pp. 592-596. ISSN 1752-0894
Abstract
The recovery of stratospheric ozone from past depletion is underway owing to the 1987 Montreal Protocol and its subsequent amendments, which have been effective in phasing out the production and consumption of the major ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). However, there is uncertainty about the future rate of recovery. This uncertainty relates partly to unexpected emissions of controlled anthropogenic ODSs such as CCl₃F and slower-than-expected declines in atmospheric CCl₄. A further uncertainty surrounds emissions of uncontrolled short-lived anthropogenic ODSs (such as CH₂Cl₂ and CHCl₃), which observations show have been increasing in the atmosphere through 2017, as well as potential emission increases in natural ODSs (such as CH₃Cl and CH₃Br) induced by climate change, changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases N₂O and CH₄, and stratospheric geoengineering. These challenges could delay the return of stratospheric ozone levels to historical values, (for example, the abundance in 1980), by up to decades, depending on the future evolution of the emissions and other influencing factors. To mitigate the threats to future ozone recovery, it is crucial to ensure that the Montreal Protocol and its amendments continue to be implemented effectively in order to have firm control on future levels of ODSs. This action needs to be supported by an expansion of the geographic coverage of atmospheric observations of ODSs, by enhancing the ability of source attribution modelling, and by improving understanding of the interactions between climate change and ozone recovery.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © Springer Nature Limited 2019. This is an author produced version of a paper published in Nature Geoscience. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | Atmospheric chemistry; Climate and Earth system modelling; Climate change; Environmental impact; Sustainability |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 20 Sep 2019 10:23 |
Last Modified: | 29 Jan 2020 01:39 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Nature Research |
Identification Number: | 10.1038/s41561-019-0422-7 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:151077 |