MacGregor, Callum James orcid.org/0000-0001-8281-8284, Thomas, Chris orcid.org/0000-0003-2822-1334, Roy, David B. et al. (17 more authors) (2019) Climate-induced phenology shifts linked to range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year. Nature Communications. 4455. ISSN 2041-1723
Abstract
Advances in phenology (the annual timing of species’ life-cycles) in response to climate change are generally viewed as bioindicators of climate change, but have not been considered as predictors of range expansions. Here, we show that phenology advances combine with the number of reproductive cycles per year (voltinism) to shape abundance and distribution trends in 130 species of British Lepidoptera, in response to ~0.5 °C spring-temperature warming between 1995 and 2014. Early adult emergence in warm years resulted in increased within- and between-year population growth for species with multiple reproductive cycles per year (n = 39 multivoltine species). By contrast, early emergence had neutral or negative consequences for species with a single annual reproductive cycle (n = 91 univoltine species), depending on habitat specialisation. We conclude that phenology advances facilitate polewards range expansions in species exhibiting plasticity for both phenology and voltinism, but may inhibit expansion by less flexible species.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | This is an author-produced version of the published paper. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher’s self-archiving policy. Further copying may not be permitted; contact the publisher for details. |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of York |
Academic Units: | The University of York > Faculty of Sciences (York) > Biology (York) The University of York > Faculty of Sciences (York) > Environment and Geography (York) |
Depositing User: | Pure (York) |
Date Deposited: | 11 Sep 2019 10:30 |
Last Modified: | 16 Oct 2024 16:00 |
Published Version: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12479-w |
Status: | Published |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1038/s41467-019-12479-w |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:150667 |
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