Gohar, LK, Lowe, JA orcid.org/0000-0002-8201-3926 and Bernie, D (2017) The Impact of Bias Correction and Model Selection on Passing Temperature Thresholds. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 122 (22). 12,045-12,061. ISSN 2169-897X
Abstract
Knowledge of when specific global or local temperature levels are reached is important for decision makers in that it provides a time frame over which adaptation strategies for temperature‐related climate impacts need to be put in place. The time frame varies depending on the adaptation strategy but can range from a few years to the order of decades. Climate models, however, show a high degree of uncertainty in the timing of passing specific warming levels, limiting their use in adaptation policy development. This study examines the impact of two approaches, which may reduce the uncertainty in modeled timing of reaching specific warming levels. First, the use of different performance metrics to preferentially weight model ensembles and second, the application of four bias correction approaches. Using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simulations of the Representative Concentration Pathways, our results show that both selecting models based on performance and bias correcting model data reduce the spread in timing of specific warming levels reached in the first half of the century by up to 50% in some regions. This implies the potential of these approaches to support adaptation planning.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2017 Crown copyright. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland. Reproduced in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | uncertainty; bias correction; performance metrics; threshold timing |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 04 Sep 2019 10:25 |
Last Modified: | 04 Sep 2019 10:25 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | American Geophysical Union |
Identification Number: | 10.1002/2017JD026797 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:150379 |