Brockway, PE orcid.org/0000-0001-6925-8040, Owen, A orcid.org/0000-0002-3872-9900, Brand-Correa, LI orcid.org/0000-0003-3142-8766 et al. (1 more author) (2019) Estimation of global final-stage energy-return-on-investment for fossil fuels with comparison to renewable energy sources. Nature Energy, 4 (7). pp. 612-621. ISSN 2058-7546
Abstract
Under many scenarios, fossil fuels are projected to remain the dominant energy source until at least 2050. However, harder-to-reach fossil fuels require more energy to extract and, hence, are coming at an increasing ‘energy cost’. Associated declines in fossil fuel energy-return-on-investment ratios at first appear of little concern, given that published estimates for oil, coal and gas are typically above 25:1. However, such ratios are measured at the primary energy stage and should instead be estimated at the final stage where energy enters the economy (for example, electricity and petrol). Here, we calculate global time series (1995–2011) energy-return-on-investment ratios for fossil fuels at both primary and final energy stages. We concur with common primary-stage estimates (~30:1), but find very low ratios at the final stage: around 6:1 and declining. This implies that fossil fuel energy-return-on-investment ratios may be much closer to those of renewables than previously expected and that they could decline precipitously in the near future.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
---|---|
Authors/Creators: |
|
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2019. This is an author produced version of an article published in Nature Energy. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | energy return on investment; fossil fuels; energy cliff; renewables |
Dates: |
|
Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Sustainability Research Institute (SRI) (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number EPSRC (Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council) EP/R024251/1 EPSRC (Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council) EP/L024756/1 EPSRC (Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council) EP/R005052/1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 19 Jul 2019 11:12 |
Last Modified: | 17 Dec 2024 14:01 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Nature Research |
Identification Number: | 10.1038/s41560-019-0425-z |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:148748 |