Lim, F.K.S., Carrasco, R., McHardy, J. orcid.org/0000-0003-2441-7110 et al. (1 more author) (2019) Land rents drive oil palm expansion dynamics in Indonesia. Environmental Research Letters, 14 (7). 074024. ISSN 1748-9326
Abstract
Increasing global demand for oil palm drives its expansion across the tropics, at the expense of forests and biodiversity. Little is known of the dynamics that shape the spread of oil palm, limiting our potential to predict areas vulnerable to future crop expansion and its resulting biodiversity impacts. Critically, studies have not related oil palm expansion to the role of agricultural rent and profitability in explaining how and where oil palm is expected to expand. Using a novel land-rent modelling framework parameterised to oil palm expansion across Indonesia between 2000 to 2015, we identify drivers of crop expansion and evaluate whether Indonesia's Forest Moratorium might reduce the rate of future oil palm expansion. With an overall accuracy of 85.84%, the model shows oil palm expansion is driven by price changes, spatial distribution of production costs, and a spatial contagion effect. Projecting beyond 2015, we show that areas under high risk of oil palm expansion are mostly not protected by the current Forest Moratorium. Our study emphasises the importance of economic forces and infrastructure on oil palm expansion. These results could be used for more effective conservation decisions to manage one of the biggest drivers of tropical biodiversity loss.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0). Although reasonable endeavours have been taken to obtain all necessary permissions from third parties to include their copyrighted content within this article, their full citation and copyright line may not be present in this Accepted Manuscript version. Before using any content from this article, please refer to the Version of Record on IOPscience once published for full citation and copyright details, as permission may be required. All third party content is fully copyright protected, and is not published on a gold open access basis under a CC BY licence, unless that is specifically stated in the figure caption in the Version of Record. |
Keywords: | Agricultural rent; conservation planning; cropland expansion; deforestation; Elaeis guineensis; Forest Moratorium |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Science (Sheffield) > School of Biosciences (Sheffield) > Department of Animal and Plant Sciences (Sheffield) The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Social Sciences (Sheffield) > Department of Economics (Sheffield) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 09 Jul 2019 14:16 |
Last Modified: | 08 Dec 2021 08:44 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | IOP Publishing |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab2bda |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:148218 |
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Filename: Lim+et+al_2019_Environ._Res._Lett._10.1088_1748-9326_ab2bda.pdf
Description: Publisher accepted manuscript
Licence: CC-BY 3.0