Pommereau, JP, Goutail, F, Pazmino, A et al. (13 more authors) (2018) Recent Arctic ozone depletion: Is there an impact of climate change? Comptes Rendus - Geoscience, 350 (7). pp. 347-353. ISSN 1631-0713
Abstract
After the well-reported record loss of Arctic stratospheric ozone of up to 38% in the winter 2010–2011, further large depletion of 27% occurred in the winter 2015–2016. Record low winter polar vortex temperatures, below the threshold for ice polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation, persisted for one month in January 2016. This is the first observation of such an event and resulted in unprecedented dehydration/denitrification of the polar vortex. Although chemistry–climate models (CCMs) generally predict further cooling of the lower stratosphere with the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), significant differences are found between model results indicating relatively large uncertainties in the predictions. The link between stratospheric temperature and ozone loss is well understood and the observed relationship is well captured by chemical transport models (CTMs). However, the strong dynamical variability in the Arctic means that large ozone depletion events like those of 2010–2011 and 2015–2016 may still occur until the concentrations of ozone-depleting substances return to their 1960 values. It is thus likely that the stratospheric ozone recovery, currently anticipated for the mid-2030s, might be significantly delayed. Most important in order to predict the future evolution of Arctic ozone and to reduce the uncertainty of the timing for its recovery is to ensure continuation of high-quality ground-based and satellite ozone observations with special focus on monitoring the annual ozone loss during the Arctic winter.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2018 Academie des sciences. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). |
Keywords: | Recent stratospheric ozone depletion; Arctic; Impact on climate change |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > National Centre for Atmos Science (NCAS) (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number NERC no ext. ref. NERC No External Reference |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 27 Jun 2019 12:39 |
Last Modified: | 27 Jun 2019 12:39 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Elsevier Masson |
Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.crte.2018.07.009 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:147834 |