Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient

Abstract

Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species.

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Item Type:	Article
Authors/Creators:	Radchuk, V Reed, T Teplitsky, C van de Pol, M Charmantier, A Hassall, C https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3510-0728 Adamík, P Adriaensen, F Ahola, MP Arcese, P Avilés, JM Balbontin, J Berg, KS Borras, A Burthe, S Clobert, J Dehnhard, N de Lope, F Dhondt, AA Dingemanse, NJ Doi, H Eeva, T Fickel, J Filella, I Fossøy, F Goodenough, AE Hall, SJG Hansson, B Harris, M Hasselquist, D Hickler, T Joshi, J Kharouba, H Martínez, JG Mihoub, J-B Mills, JA Molina-Morales, M Moksnes, A Ozgul, A Parejo, D Pilard, P Poisbleau, M Rousset, F Rödel, M-O Scott, D Senar, JC Stefanescu, C Stokke, BG Kusano, T Tarka, M Tarwater, CE Thonicke, K Thorley, J Wilting, A Tryjanowski, P Merilä, J Sheldon, B Møller, AP Matthysen, E Janzen, F Dobson, FS Visser, ME Beissinger, SR Courtiol, A Kramer-Schadt, S
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information:	© 2019, The Author(s). This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC-BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Dates:	Accepted: 15 May 2019 Published (online): 23 July 2019 Published: December 2019
Institution:	The University of Leeds
Academic Units:	The University of Leeds > Faculty of Biological Sciences (Leeds) > School of Biology (Leeds)
Depositing User:	Symplectic Publications
Date Deposited:	22 May 2019 12:12
Last Modified:	19 May 2020 12:52
Status:	Published
Publisher:	Nature Research
Identification Number:	10.1038/s41467-019-10924-4
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID):	oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:146438

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Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient

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