Ge, J orcid.org/0000-0001-6491-3851, Polhill, JG, Craig, T et al. (1 more author) (2018) From oil wealth to green growth - An empirical agent-based model of recession, migration and sustainable urban transition. Environmental Modelling & Software, 107. pp. 119-140. ISSN 1364-8152
Abstract
This paper develops an empirical, multi-layered and spatially-explicit agent-based model that explores sustainable pathways for Aberdeen city and surrounding area to transition from an oil-based economy to green growth. The model takes an integrated, complex systems approach to urban systems and incorporates the interconnectedness between people, households, businesses, industries and neighbourhoods. We find that the oil price collapse could potentially lead to enduring regional decline and recession. With green growth, however, the crisis could be used as an opportunity to restructure the regional economy, reshape its neighbourhoods, and redefine its identity in the global economy. We find that the type of the green growth and the location of the new businesses will have profound ramifications for development outcomes, not only by directly creating businesses and employment opportunities in strategic areas, but also by redirecting households and service businesses to these areas. New residential and business centres emerge as a result of this process. Finally, we argue that industries, businesses and the labour market are essential components of a deeply integrated urban system. To understand urban transition, models should consider both household and industrial aspects.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. This is an author produced version of a paper published in Environmental Modelling & Software. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | Spatial agent-based model; Recession; Migration; Urban transition; Oil crises; Sustainability |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Geography (Leeds) > Centre for Spatial Analysis & Policy (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 20 May 2019 11:26 |
Last Modified: | 09 Jun 2019 00:41 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.05.017 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:146260 |