Rojas, M, Lambert, F, Ramirez-Villegas, J et al. (1 more author) (2019) Emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas in the 21st century. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116 (14). pp. 6673-6678. ISSN 0027-8424
Abstract
A warming climate will affect regional precipitation and hence food supply. However, only a few regions around the world are currently undergoing precipitation changes that can be attributed to climate change. Knowing when such changes are projected to emerge outside natural variability—the time of emergence (TOE)—is critical for taking effective adaptation measures. Using ensemble climate projections, we determine the TOE of regional precipitation changes globally and in particular for the growing areas of four major crops. We find relatively early (<2040) emergence of precipitation trends for all four crops. Reduced (increased) precipitation trends encompass 1–14% (3–31%) of global production of maize, wheat, rice, and soybean. Comparing results for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 clearly shows that emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement result in far less cropped land experiencing novel climates. However, the existence of a TOE, even under the lowest emission scenario, and a small probability for early emergence emphasize the urgent need for adaptation measures. We also show how both the urgency of adaptation and the extent of mitigation vary geographically.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2019 Published under the PNAS license. |
Keywords: | climate change; natural variability; precipitation; agriculture; CMIP5 |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 10 May 2019 08:59 |
Last Modified: | 12 Sep 2019 08:50 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | National Academy of Sciences |
Identification Number: | 10.1073/pnas.1811463116 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:145889 |