Shepherd, S orcid.org/0000-0002-4420-3382, Pfaffenbichler, P and Bielefeldt, C (2019) Analysing the causes of long-distance travel in Europe – a system dynamics approach. Transportmetrica B: Transport Dynamics, 7 (1). pp. 1130-1154. ISSN 2168-0566
Abstract
Long-distance travel is growing in Europe. While it only accounts for around 3% of trips made, it contributes around a third of distance travelled and to the growing problem of carbon emissions. Despite this there has been little evidence on what causes growth in long-distance travel. This paper presents the LUNA model, a System Dynamics model of long-distance travel in Europe, able to analyse effects of both socio-demographic and transport policy scenarios. We present the development and calibration of the model and its application to three different scenarios based on recent EU evidence and policy. We show that socio-demographic assumptions play a significant role in the evolution of long-distance travel-related emissions. Transport policy tends to affect mode choice but only efficiency improvements contribute significantly to a reduction in emissions. Even quite strong policy change is not enough to meet the EU reduction targets by 2050.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Keywords: | Long-distance travel, socio-demographic change, transport policy, greenhouse gas emissions |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > Institute for Transport Studies (Leeds) > ITS: Spatial Modelling and Dynamics (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number EU - European Union 265600 EU - European Union 265600 EU - European Union 265600 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 15 Mar 2019 12:51 |
Last Modified: | 30 Apr 2019 15:01 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Taylor & Francis |
Identification Number: | 10.1080/21680566.2019.1587646 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:143671 |
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Filename: Transportmetrica B - LUNA paper final-accepted.pdf
