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Lomax, N orcid.org/0000-0001-9504-7570, Wohland, P, Rees, P orcid.org/0000-0002-4276-9091 et al. (1 more author) (2020) The impacts of international migration on the UK’s ethnic populations. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 46 (1). pp. 177-199. ISSN 1369-183X
Abstract
The United Kingdom faces demographic uncertainty, as negotiations for leaving the European Union (Brexit) proceed. Brexit has implications for international migration into and out of the UK, dependent on future immigration policy and on how attractive the UK will be as a labour market. At the same time, the UK population is experiencing ethnic diversification, consequent on past immigration. To explore the UK’s future ethnic diversity, we run four projection scenarios. Three international migration scenarios, varying by the extent of the break with the EU, are implemented together with a reference projection assuming zero international migration. Ethnic groups are differently affected by these migration scenarios, depending on the contribution of international migration to population growth and the extent of demographic momentum. The White British and Irish lose population under all Brexit scenarios and the Black Caribbean population declines in all but one scenario. The White Other, Indian, Chinese, Other Asian and Other groups will show much lower growth under Soft and Hard Brexit scenarios. The growth of the Mixed, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Black African and Black Other groups will only be affected marginally. Under every scenario, however, the UK’s population is projected to continue to grow, age and diversify.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
Keywords: | International migration; ethnic; Brexit; projection; scenario |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Geography (Leeds) > Centre for Spatial Analysis & Policy (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number ESRC (Economic and Social Research Council) ES/L013878/1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 12 Mar 2019 14:13 |
Last Modified: | 16 Mar 2020 20:48 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Taylor & Francis |
Identification Number: | 10.1080/1369183X.2019.1577726 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:143544 |
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Ethnic Fertility Estimates and Assumptions. (deposited 10 Jul 2019 08:49)
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