Hassan, M., Jones, E. and Buck, C. (2019) A simple Bayesian approach to tree-ring dating. Archaeometry, 61 (4). pp. 991-1010. ISSN 0003-813X
Abstract
Tree‐ring dating involves matching sequences of ring widths from undated timbers to dated sequences known as ‘master’ chronologies. Conventionally, the undated timbers (from a building or woodland) are sequentially matched against one another, using t‐tests to identify the relative offsets with the ‘best’ match, thus producing a ’site’ chronology. A date estimate is obtained when this is matched to a local master chronology of known calendar age. Many tree‐ring sequences in the UK produce rather low t‐values and are thus declared not to have a ‘best’ match to a master chronology. Motivated by this and the routine use of Bayesian statistical methods to provide a probabilistic approach to radiocarbon dating, this paper investigates the practicality of Bayesian dendrochronology. We explore a previously published model for the relationship between ring widths and the underlying climatic signal, implementing it within the Bayesian framework via a simulation‐based approach. Probabilities for a match at each offset are produced, removing the need to identify a single ‘best’ match. The Bayesian model proves successful at matching in both simulated and real examples.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2019 University of Oxford. This is an author produced version of a paper subsequently published in Archaeometry. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Science (Sheffield) > School of Mathematics and Statistics (Sheffield) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 13 Feb 2019 11:32 |
Last Modified: | 18 Nov 2021 09:22 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Wiley |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1111/arcm.12466 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:142496 |