Lewandowsky, Stephan, Cowtan, Kevin orcid.org/0000-0002-0189-1437, Risbey, James S. et al. (4 more authors) (2018) The 'pause' in global warming in historical context:(II). Comparing models to observations. Environmental Research Letters. 123007. ISSN 1748-9326
Abstract
We review the evidence for a putative early 21st-century divergence between global mean surface temperature (GMST) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections. We provide a systematic comparison between temperatures and projections using historical versions of GMST products and historical versions of model projections that existed at the times when claims about a divergence were made. The comparisons are conducted with a variety of statistical techniques that correct for problems in previous work, including using continuous trends and a Monte Carlo approach to simulate internal variability. The results show that there is no robust statistical evidence for a divergence between models and observations. The impression of a divergence early in the 21st century was caused by various biases in model interpretation and in the observations, and was unsupported by robust statistics.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2018 The Author(s). |
Keywords: | 'pause' in global warming,climate models,climate projections |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of York |
Academic Units: | The University of York > Faculty of Sciences (York) > Chemistry (York) |
Depositing User: | Pure (York) |
Date Deposited: | 04 Feb 2019 17:00 |
Last Modified: | 16 Oct 2024 15:27 |
Published Version: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf372 |
Status: | Published |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1088/1748-9326/aaf372 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:142118 |
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