Fryer, H.R., Van Tienen, C., Van Der Loeff, M.S. et al. (5 more authors) (2015) Predicting the extinction of HIV-2 in rural Guinea-Bissau. AIDS, 29 (18). pp. 2479-2486. ISSN 0269-9370
Abstract
Objective: This article predicts the future epidemiology of HIV-2 in Caió, a rural region of Guinea Bissau; and investigates whether HIV-2, which has halved in prevalence between 1990 and 2007 and is now almost absent in young adults in Caió, can persist as an infection of the elderly. Design: A mathematical model of the spread of HIV-2 was tailored to the epidemic in Caió, a village in Guinea-Bissau. Methods: An age-stratified difference equation model of HIV-2 transmission was fitted to age-stratified HIV-2 incidence and prevalence data from surveys conducted in Caió in 1990, 1997 and 2007. A stochastic version of the same model was used to make projections. Results: HIV-2 infection is predicted to continue to rapidly decline in Caió such that new infections will cease and prevalence will reach low levels (e.g. below 0.1%) within a few decades. HIV-2 is not predicted to persist in the elderly. Conclusion: HIV-2 is predicted go extinct in Caió during the second half of this century.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | Q 2015 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License, (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) where it is permissible to download and share the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be changed in any way or used commercially. |
Keywords: | age; epidemiology; extinction; HIV-2; incidence; mathematical model; prevalence |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health (Sheffield) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 28 Mar 2019 15:37 |
Last Modified: | 28 Mar 2019 15:37 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Lippincott, Williams & Wilkins |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1097/QAD.0000000000000844 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:141772 |
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