Risbey, James S., Lewandowsky, Stephan, Cowtan, Kevin orcid.org/0000-0002-0189-1437 et al. (4 more authors) (2018) A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context:Reassessment and retrospective on the evidence. Environmental Research Letters. 123008. ISSN 1748-9326
Abstract
This work reviews the literature on an alleged global warming 'pause' in global mean surface temperature (GMST) to determine how it has been defined, what time intervals are used to characterise it, what data are used to measure it, and what methods used to assess it. We test for 'pauses', both in the normally understood meaning of the term to mean no warming trend, as well as for a 'pause' defined as a substantially slower trend in GMST. The tests are carried out with the historical versions of GMST that existed for each pause-interval tested, and with current versions of each of the GMST datasets. The tests are conducted following the common (but questionable) practice of breaking the linear fit at the start of the trend interval ('broken' trends), and also with trends that are continuous with the data bordering the trend interval. We also compare results when appropriate allowance is made for the selection bias problem. The results show that there is little or no statistical evidence for a lack of trend or slower trend in GMST using either the historical data or the current data. The perception that there was a 'pause' in GMST was bolstered by earlier biases in the data in combination with incomplete statistical testing.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2018 The Author(s). This is an author-produced version of the published paper. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher’s self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | climate trends,climate variability,pause hiatus,temperature fluctuation |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of York |
Academic Units: | The University of York > Faculty of Sciences (York) > Chemistry (York) |
Depositing User: | Pure (York) |
Date Deposited: | 28 Jan 2019 11:10 |
Last Modified: | 16 Oct 2024 15:25 |
Published Version: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf342 |
Status: | Published |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1088/1748-9326/aaf342 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:141679 |
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