Flügel, S, Fearnley, N and Toner, J orcid.org/0000-0002-6679-3889 (2018) What factors affect cross-modal substitution? – evidences from the Oslo area. International Journal of Transport Development and Integration, 2 (1). pp. 11-29. ISSN 2058-8305
Abstract
The vast majority of studies on urban travel demand focus on the effect on the demand of one travel mode given a change in the characteristics of that same transport mode, for example, own-elasticities. comparatively little is known about cross-elasticities of demand. In particular, there is a need for a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms of modal substitution, that is a better understanding of cross-modal diversion factors (Dfs) defined as the proportion of people who leave mode a and switch to mode b. The purpose of this article is to investigate what factors explain variations in Dfs across transport modes, submarkets and policy measures. using a recently developed empirical travel mode choice model for the Oslo area, we simulate over 10,000 different Dfs by systematically changing the underlying transport modes, submarkets and policies (size, direction and type of change). With descriptive statistics, we show how the Dfs vary on a general level. most results are immediately intuitive, for example that car drivers mostly substitute to walk for short-distance trips but that those Dfs diminish rapidly with increasing distance. Interestingly, we find rather high Dfs across different forms of public transportation. With successive regression analyses we show that the number of available alternatives and relative market shares significantly affect Dfs.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Editors: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2018 WIT Press. Reproduced in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | cross-model substitution; diversion factors; nested logit model; sample enumeration |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > Institute for Transport Studies (Leeds) > ITS: Economics and Discrete Choice (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number Research Council of Norway ES541146 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 28 Jan 2019 11:53 |
Last Modified: | 28 Jan 2019 11:53 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | WIT Press |
Identification Number: | 10.2495/TDI-V2-N1-11-29 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:141646 |