Yang, H. orcid.org/0000-0002-3372-4801 and Bath, P.A. orcid.org/0000-0002-6310-7396 (2018) Predicting loneliness in older age using two measures of loneliness. International Journal of Computers and Applications, 42 (6). pp. 602-615. ISSN 1206-212X
Abstract
Older people are especially vulnerable to loneliness and this has become a major public health concern for people in later life. In this paper, we propose a machine learning based approach to predict loneliness probability using two gradient boosting algorithms, XGBoost and LightGBM. The predictive models are built using data from a large nationally representative sample from, the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) that had seven successive waves (2002–2015). Two measures of loneliness were applied to investigate the impact of different measure strategies on the prediction of loneliness. The models achieved good performance with a high Area Under Curve (AUC) and a low Logarithmic Loss (LogLoss) on the test data, i.e. AUC (0.88) and LogLoss (0.24) using the single-item direct measure of loneliness, and AUC (0.84) and LogLoss (0.31) using the multi-item indirect measure of loneliness. A wide range of variables were investigated to identify significant risk factors associated with loneliness. Specific categories associated with important variables were also recognized by the models. Such information will further enhance our understanding and knowledge of the causes of loneliness in elderly people.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
---|---|
Authors/Creators: |
|
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2018 Taylor & Francis. This is an author-produced version of a paper subsequently published in International Journal of Computers and Applications. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | Loneliness; measure of loneliness; older age; ELSA data; predictive model; gradient tree boosting |
Dates: |
|
Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Social Sciences (Sheffield) > Information School (Sheffield) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 01 Mar 2019 15:40 |
Last Modified: | 25 Nov 2021 09:42 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Taylor & Francis |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1080/1206212X.2018.1562408 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:140737 |